Library

Case studies

All scenarios below are SIMULATED and illustrative. Tickers are fictional.

$PEBL — falls 75%, later recovers

SIMULATED · -75%
Useful signals
Narrative revived by an external catalyst; liquidity held; holders broadened.
Misleading
Early social spike looked organic but was partly coordinated.
Unknowable then
Timing of the catalyst.

$GLOOM — falls 85%, keeps collapsing

SIMULATED · -85%
Useful signals
Volume decayed every week; dev went silent.
Misleading
Deep discount looked 'cheap'.
Unknowable then
Whether a revival was planned.

$HYPE2 — loud socials, dangerous concentration

SIMULATED · -72%
Useful signals
Top 5 wallets held 48% of supply.
Misleading
Engagement numbers.
Unknowable then
Wallet links beyond on-chain heuristics.

$BUILDR — active dev, suspicious wallets

SIMULATED · -78%
Useful signals
Team-linked wallet sold into every announcement.
Misleading
Frequent dev posts.
Unknowable then
Intent behind the transfers.

$MOOD — narrative alive, no liquidity

SIMULATED · -80%
Useful signals
Price impact >15% on a modest size.
Misleading
Chart recovery that couldn't be exited.
Unknowable then
Whether LP would be added.

$PASSD — passes first checks, fails later

SIMULATED · -71%
Useful signals
Re-checking holders weekly caught a new whale.
Misleading
Initial clean rug check.
Unknowable then
Future wallet behaviour.

$FOGG — attractive, insufficient evidence

SIMULATED · -76%
Useful signals
Recognising the evidence gap and passing.
Misleading
FOMO trader buys.
Unknowable then
Almost everything — which was the point.